The Conference of Parties (COP) is an annual climate conference that has been held under the auspices of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since 1995. It is seen as the most effective forum for negotiations on climate issues that require a global consensus on mitigation, adaptation and finance. Since the beginning of this convention, it has been difficult for countries to agree on a mechanism that is acceptable to all, from the cost of energy transition to strengthening the adaptive resilience of vulnerable countries. Every year, the same contentious issues are discussed with grudgingly slow movement in critical areas, plunging middle- and low-income economies into a debt and poverty trap.

Meanwhile, resentment is on the ascendant, polarisation is becoming more acute and people are losing faith in the multilateral system being the best way forward to find just and equitable solutions to the climate crisis. Hope is the only element that keeps people going, but that too is falling victim to despair and delusion. The vacuum is creating space for populist leaders to use uncertainty to inject fear in the minds of people and attract voter appeal for right-wing agendas. The politics of division are threatening to become the new normal. A world confronted by scarcity, and fear of dwindling access to basic provisions and services, is easy for politicians to exploit without providing a roadmap of achievable solutions.

Seen through a wider lens, global climate politics have a way of trickling down to the country level, presenting the same set of problems on a reduced scale.

At the global stage, countries form blocks to challenge each other’s positions on responsibility (both historical and current) for emissions, fight pitched battles on the cost of transition and lock horns on finance for adaptation, loss and damage. The attribution of responsibility, timelines and bearing the cost of transition remain the most contested discussion points.

However, if the focus is narrowed to the country level, the same issues crop up for debate in varying ways, depending on the prevalent institutional arrangement on climate governance. Generally speaking, countries do not talk about the aspect of equity because the truth is often inconvenient and it is not easy to walk the talk of climate justice.

Pakistan is hard hit by climate change. Broadly speaking, the socioeconomic woes afflicting the country are largely due to issues of governance that have failed to put in place a system built on the principles of socioeconomic equity. The hopes and well-being of the common man are not reflected in the governance paradigm. Unsuccessful attempts to control the population growth rate, societal barriers to gender equality and failure to deliver quality health and education have created a glaring gap between the rich and poor, with huge disparities in income and wealth distribution. Economic divisions with stark social divisions along ideological lines are not a good recipe for good governance, but they assume dangerous proportions for a country that is on the frontlines of the climate crisis. The poly-crisis brewing beneath the surface can become more explosive than the crisis triggered by surface changes in temperature. Both need a balancing act to maintain the equilibrium.

Although the UNFCCC platform for negotiations has not delivered results according to the hopes of the Global South, it nevertheless provides the only convening space where negotiations are possible and commitments are made to take the agenda forward. The process has been slow and lugubrious, but it has produced a workable model that can be replicated by countries to address internal climate approaches.

The complexity of managing climate change in Pakistan has increased after the passage of the 18th Amendment.

The remit of the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination (MoCC&EC) is limited to signing and ratifying international treaties and agreements. It takes no responsibility for the implementation of policies that it makes and holds the sub-national governments responsible for the execution. The sub-national governments, on the other hand, plead inability to implement policies, citing finance, capacity and lack of access to technology as key impediments in the way of implementation. This dichotomy creates a disconnect that is pushing Pakistan to the edge of a precipice. The climate is, and should be, recognised as a national crisis threatening the economy and undermining social indicators. The issue can only be addressed through institutional mechanisms that are transparent, accountable and inclusive.

The Climate Act 2017 provides for setting up a Climate Authority (CA) to address issues of coordination, capacity and resource mobilisation. The CA was not operationalised for seven years and the process has only recently been activated by an order of the Supreme Court.

One of the reasons for the delay in operationalising the CA is the pushback from the MoCC&EC which sees the CA as a parallel power structure that may reduce the role and relevance of the ministry. This conclusion is based on a flawed assumption. With the right choice of chairman and members, the CA can become the technical arm of the ministry, enhancing its profile and expanding its outreach to be more effective at national and international levels. A strong CA will add complementarity to the functions of MoCC&EC through synergistic actions and harmonised outcomes. Working in tandem and moving away from siloed positions is essential to getting work done. The current policy paralysis can be overcome if there is a desire to take action and engage in political forward-thinking.

At present, there is an abundance of policies and a dearth of implementation. In recent years, the pace of climate change has accelerated from a slow-onset event to a palpable threat. The mismatch between promises and action-specific initiatives is widening the trust deficit gap between the people and the government. With high inflation, hunger, thirst and an inability to make ends meet, the public mood is fast souring and the large youth cohort in the country is becoming restless and agitated. This is a governance crisis in the making and climate change is going to act as a threat multiplier, enhancing risks and setting the stage for strife and conflict. It is time to move beyond rhetorical statements to measurable investments for change.

Pakistan needs a structural overhual that puts health, education and women at its centre, a system that recognises merit and equal opportunity, and an action plan to reduce the alarming population growth rate.

The outcome will yield improved human capital, enhanced opportunity for women and reduced pressure on resources. All of the above are critical for green growth and sustainable development. The days ahead will be difficult with multiple crises compounding the climate crisis, but there is still a window of opportunity to forge a future with fewer losses and stronger capacity for building resilience.

The Paris Agreement was built on a moral mandate. We need a moral compact within the country to reduce the equity gap and put a system in place that is just and inclusive with higher transparency and greater accountability. The time for transition is now. We need to change and walk in step with a world whose algorithms are operating at a different frequency. The answer lies in using existing systems to find workable solutions. The UNFCCC and the Paris Rulebook provide the perfect template for building national approaches which improve vertical and horizontal coordination between the central and sub-national governments. The principle of “common but differentiated responsibility with respective capability” can be used to steer the “agenda of solutions.” Convening an annual in-country conference with MoCC&EC serving as the secretariat and the sub-national governments joining as Parties and preparing Provincially Determined Contributions can go a long way in helping Pakistan meet its Nationally Determined Contributions and Sustainable Development Goals targets.

Aisha Khan is Chief Executive, The Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change. aisha@csccc.org.pk