The world over, the power sector stands at a critical juncture: decarbonising grids while investing in power infrastructure to cater to the rapid induction of variable renewable sources. The demand for electricity and its consistent availability are forecast to rise as more people switch to electrical devices for everyday activities. Since the Paris Agreement came into effect, power companies are rushing to meet country-based climate targets to reduce emissions and insulate their systems from supply shocks.

Although the power industry is under transformation in order to facilitate the green transition, extreme weather events caused by global heating are raising significant questions about the reliability and stability of grids to withstand power supply disruption events. Extreme weather conditions include dust, ice, snow, blizzards, windstorms, wildfires, flooding, heatwaves, hurricanes and tropical storms.

The escalating effect of global warming underscores the urgency with which mechanisms are devised to enhance and augment power systems. Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2024 was the hottest calendar year yet, with the average global surface temperature 1.55°C higher compared to the global mean temperature between 1850 and 1900. Most of the world’s energy infrastructure was designed for milder conditions and now faces resilience challenges. In essence, “overhauling the power energy system to withstand severe climate change in the future and adapt to existing climatic shifts is a dual risk,” highlights the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook, 2023.

Keeping the lights on is a priority for power companies globally, particularly In the US where power consumers are experiencing over seven hours of outages, with five of those hours stemming from major weather events.

In fact, about 80% of power outages from 2000 to 2023 were attributed to extreme weather.

In 2023 and 2024, the Middle East and the Balkan States, respectively, faced outages due to high temperatures – one from increased cooling needs and the impact of heat on power lines themselves. Heavy rainfall, hurricanes and strong winds caused millions to lose access. The 2023 fires in Hawaii downed power lines; the ongoing Palisades Fires; or the 2022 and 2023 blizzards in Buffalo, New York, where substations stopped service due to high winds pushing snow into them. In February 2024, more than 500,000 consumers in the state of Victoria, Australia, were without power during severe storms in the Australian state. Consumers also dealt with paying for wholesale power prices that shot up to 16,600 Australian dollars per MWh because of the “supply crunch” when transmission lines were down. Similarly, China’s week-long heatwaves caused a major strain on the power grid, forcing it to shut down industrial units to meet the demand of residential and non-industrial consumers. The list has been growing.

Due to Pakistan’s geolocation, power systems can experience unique and hyperlocal incidences of system failures brought on by extreme weather. The most significant threats are severe rainstorms and inundation, prolonged heat, and cyclonic or dust storms. Such incidents are not new within the power industry; however, they are quickly increasing maintenance costs. Heavy rainfall in Lahore and other parts of Punjab in 2023 inundated low-lying areas, leaving homes without power for hours. A similar situation was witnessed in Karachi during the catastrophic rains of the 2020 and 2022 floods. During the same time, embankments and sandbags were deployed as part of emergency measures to protect the physical security of the Dadu 500 kV grid station that supplies power to Northern Sindh and Balochistan.

Most power infrastructure systems were designed to operate under optimum conditions – when temperatures were cooler 30 or 40 years ago.

Today, extreme heat affects the same systems and their efficient operation. Transformers and lines suffer derating, shorter lifetimes, and failures. Efficiency drops from 0.7% to 1% per 1°C rise above 20°C. As the planet heats up and the number of hot days increases, the environmental conditions will accelerate ageing for unmaintained infrastructure, risking blackouts during heatwaves or, in the case of inundation, lost hours to provide an essential service.

Most transmission towers were designed based on 30-40-year-old weather information; however, climate change has resulted in extreme weather events that can cause severe downdrafts that strain transmission towers, ultimately causing them to collapse. It is imperative to review the designs of old towers and carry out regular maintenance as well as other remediation activities to ensure the structural integrity of the tower. Other risks also involve air pollution, which causes smog in the winters, impacting above-ground infrastructure.

In the winter, Dense fog in the Punjab plains impacts the ability of sensitive power systems to function efficiently and reliably – also known as pollution-related flashovers.

Dust particles settle on insulators while humidity and dew cause dry-band arcs to form, followed by current leakages. Outages on Sindh Transmission & Dispatch Company’s lines from June to October highlight the impact of humidity on power systems during the summer monsoons. Inbuilt switches within the system automatically turn off the line, leading to what is commonly called tripping. Further on, these are recurring winter episodes, with Pakistan’s transmission network operator highlighting the strain to maintain system stability and prevent widespread blackouts. While engineering solutions exist – such as RTV coatings and composite insulators – these are again investments that need to be planned for and are ultimately necessary for grids to remain stable and reliable.

Following the 2022 floods in Pakistan, the regulator, NEPRA, highlighted in its State of Industry Report 2023 the need for deploying weather monitoring systems, emergency response plans and training personnel in response to the 38 transmission towers that collapsed in the North and South regions and the four in K-electric’s operational area for FY2022-23. It has recommended collaboration with experts to adhere to best practices in tower designs, construction and maintenance of its network. Internationally, ‘wind loads’ are calculated for the stability of transmission towers if high winds are frequently expected. During FY2023-24, the number went down to 27 for the North and South regions but increased to nine tower collapses for the areas manged by K-electric.

Considering these risks, simple interventions to monitor the states of such infrastructure are one way of building the system’s resilience.

GIS mapping, along with a comprehensive asset management strategy compliant with ISO 55001, can ensure that all assets meet the ‘system worthiness’ criteria. K-Electric’s Investment 2030 Plan aims to build on this through preemptive maintenance, which will seek to assess problem areas and design protocols to increase the reliability of power supply to its consumers. It has also been credited for simple interventions such as raising some parts of its distribution infrastructure in areas – post the 2020 super urban flooding in Karachi – where waterlogging was a major pain point for the safe supply of power.

Given the physical vulnerabilities inherent within Pakistan’s power sector due to untimely or insufficient investments, safeguarding and preparing for a future with extreme weather is a massive but necessary policy integration that the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Climate Change must partner on as it builds its climate-change mitigation portfolio. More importantly, the regulator must work with the relevant institutions to investigate the ‘asks’ of its distribution company’s filing tariff plans that have been benchmarked against expected maintenance and operational costs, including factors arising from extreme weather. This will require smart demand-side management and increasing energy efficiency – key areas to reduce the burden on the government as well as taxpayers. It may require setting up a financial mechanism via the Global Climate Fund for additional investment in lieu of the goals enshrined in SDG-7 and its sub-targets to keep the tariff low for consumers.

Additionally, such enquiries may be published in the annual State of the Industry Report as appendices. Strategic planning, smart investments and knowledge exchange with countries impacted by climate change can help build resilience. A sustainable energy future can be found for the millions of consumers who will need a stable, reliable, and consistent power grid as the planet becomes hotter and the weather becomes less predictable.

Basil Andrews is a journalist reporting on climate change, health and the environment. They tweet @_basilandrews.