TALKING HEADS

Aurora asked the heads of Pakistan’s leading advertising and media agencies to give their opinion regarding Pakistan’s economic outlook for 2010 and how it will impact the advertising profession. The following three questions were asked:

1 In the light of current economic indicators, will 2010 be the year of recovery for Pakistani advertising; in your opinion, what will be the estimated ad spend in FY 2009-10?

2 Which sectors will fuel growth? Will the telecom sector continue to dominate spend or will other sectors emerge as the leaders?

3 Do you foresee any changes in the choice of media, or will TV continue to be the main advertising platform?

Ahsen Idris

CEO, Blitz DDB

1 Pakistan was not as adversely hit by the economic meltdown as was the rest of the world. The slowdown was primarily due to the uncertain political and law and order situation, which had an impact on the stock market as well. I think it was more a case of a cautious approach by most advertisers or a tightening of belts. There are visible signs of recovery and we anticipate that 2010 will be a better year for the industry. Ad spend for 2009-10 is estimated to be in the vicinity of 22 billion rupees.

2 The telecom companies will dominate advertising for another couple of years before the economy starts picking up or inflationary pressures start to ease. The banking and real estate sectors are expected to be among the leading spenders next year.

3 TV will remain the main advertising platform. The lack of real entertainment opportunities and the rapidly changing political scenario has glued the nation to their TV sets. The latest establishment survey by Gallup Pakistan showed a massive increase in viewership. The combined rural and semi-rural TV audiences have overtaken urban audiences for terrestrial, cable and satellite. The current estimate for 10+ viewers is about 86 million; 69 million rural or semi-rural and 17 million urban viewers.

Anis Khan

Chief Executive, Manhattan Communications

1 The advertising sector is expected to recover somewhat from the hit it has taken owing to the global economic downturn. Growth in the immediate future will be moderate and nothing to write home about. Considering improving trends, spend in FY 2009-10 is likely to register a growth of 10-15% percent.

2 The telecom companies will continue to be the leading spenders, and by a wide margin. The FMCG sector is expected to rebound with reasonable spend levels but nowhere near the expected spend in the telecom sector.

Maqsood Ansari

CEO, Argus Advertising

1 2010 will not be a year of recovery. The economic climate is not indicative of the kind of growth factors needed to fuel a growth in advertising. Ad spend will continue at the current (reduced) rate for the next year.

2 The telecom companies are likely to continue to dominate spend. I don’t foresee any significant growth coming from other sectors.

3 There is nothing to suggest that TV will lose its position as the main advertising platform, especially when you consider the sectors accounting for the major part of our ad spend.

Sayyed Ahmad Masud

Managing Director, Channel 7 Communications

1 Recovery has started. Since May, advertising spend has begun to rise. 2010 should see robust growth. It is difficult to estimate ad spend as we don’t have figures for the last year when we were truly battered. However, my estimate would be approximately 20 billion rupees.

2 Due to low teledensity, the telecom companies still have a lot of room to expand, especially by introducing value added services.

The real estate sector will revive substantially.

In 2010 the telecom companies will continue to dominate.

3 TV will remain the media of choice primarily because of low literacy rates. However, engagement with social media will continue to grow at a tremendous pace, especially among the urban young, causing a significant loss of readership for newspapers and magazines. Internet advertising (although presently a miniscule part of the total ad spend) should grow by up to 300% next year. In the USA, Hulu has already brought TV programming to the internet, and in three years time, Pakistan should see a major shift, making the internet the media of choice.

Ruby Haider

CEO, IAL Saatchi & Saatchi

1 The industry is headed for a mild recovery in 2010. Due to the recession, national and multinational companies were conservative in their spending and may not have achieved their expected sales targets. We have seen recovery in the stock market, portraying positive indicators and investor confidence in the country. This will impact all the industries positively. The estimated ad spend for 2009-10 will not be very different from last year. My estimate is that the increase will be three to four percent compared to the previous year.

2 The telecom companies will be the leaders in ad spend, as despite the recession, this sector has emerged as a booming market. Next year will also see it grow at a reasonable rate. Edible and personal care products will play a vital role in the coming year, but the major part of the pie will belong to the telecom industry.

3 Web advertising is an emerging phenomenon, but TV will continue to be the main advertising platform. Although during this recession we have seen budgets shift to BTL activities, it is expected that next year more revenue will be directed to TV, as compared to the previous year.

Sohail Aziz

CEO, Message Communications

1 The global recession has hit all countries hard. We can expect moderate advertising activity during the next financial year. Ad spend will decrease by 30% compared to 2008.

2 The telecom companies will be on top of the list in terms of ad spend. The paint industry will make a major contribution in the near future.

3 The future of brand marketing lies beyond the traditional advertising formats that revolve around TV and print ads. Advertising will change its shape in the future. Digital media and OOH will consume larger chunks of the ad budgets of most brands.

Raza Mankani

CEO, Insync Advertising

1 While some sectors may gradually bounce back in 2010, the expected deflation of the telecom bubble is likely to result in more optimised spending in this category; hence the overall industry may not witness significant recovery. Changes in the economic and political scenario will have a bearing on any ultimate outcome. The current outlook suggests an overall cross-media ad spend drop of about 30-35% in 2009-10.

2 The struggle between the telecom companies to outdo each other through ‘special offers’ is bordering on the desperate. There is just so much gimmickry an aware consumer will buy into. These companies are therefore expected to rationalise their strategies gradually and this will be reflected in their ad spend. However, they will remain a significant contributor to the industry in the short run.

3 TV will remain the preferred medium, although its usage has evolved. Endorsement of alternative media is gaining momentum, particularly among premium brands.  Until the means to track these are functional and meet marketer requirements, they will probably lag behind conventional media.

Syed Jawaid Iqbal

President and CEO, CMC

1 There are definite prospects of recovery. Brands which have been relatively inactive may wake up, but they will advertise only on select media, due to high rates. Ad spend in 2009-10 will probably improve compared to the last fiscal year, although most of the spend will be geared towards unique advertising avenues. The overall increase should be at least 10-15%.

2 The telecom companies will be dominant. Construction, FMCGs, food and beverages will also fuel growth.

3 Our market has yet to come out of the couch potato syndrome and until it does, TV will account for a high share of ad spend. However, within this medium, we may see more brands opting for direct branding or content integration (creative placements) rather than focusing on airing ads.

Khalid Rauf

CEO, Lowe & Rauf

1 2010 will be a challenging year for the profession in terms of cutting costs and enhancing organic revenue growth. Estimating advertising spend in 2010 in rupee terms is a futile exercise as media spends will drop further and there are chances of media rates falling too. Therefore, there will be two sets of variable, value driven inputs.

2 The telecom companies will, barring any major consolidation, remain the single dominant category; however there will be an appreciable drop within it. FMCGs collectively will emerge as the largest consumers of media.

3 TV will remain the media of choice for most consumer driven categories. While a significant rise in online advertising is expected, this could be at the expense of print.

Syed Masood Hashmi

CEO, Orientm McCann Erickson

1 From 2010 onwards, the economy will recover on account of the Government’s commitment, the influx of foreign aid and a policy shift focusing on investment in agriculture and industry. It is forecast that major sectors of the economy will experience an uplift in 2010. Advertising will follow a similar trend and there will be an upward movement as investments happen. Ad spend in FY 2008-09 did not change much compared to FY 2007-08 due to the economic crunch. In FY 2009-10, spend will see an incline towards the end of the financial year.

2 According to the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority, in July 2009, approximately 95 million Pakistanis were mobile phone users. There is also a rapidly growing 7.5% internet penetration rate. These sectors will continue to fuel advertising growth. They will be followed by the FMCG companies and banks.

3 Worldwide there has been an exponential growth in spending on digital media and a gradual decline in conventional media. Although in 2010 the bulk of revenues will come from non-digital media, digital spending will make further inroads. The winners will be those brands that embrace digital migration, while ensuring they do not undermine their non-digital spends.

Mahmood Parekh

Chief Executive, MCM Advertising

1 The present economic indicators are not positive. It will take Pakistan’s economy at least three years to recover, and that too depending on new investments, new industries, new products, better financial controls, peace, and continuity in government policies that are investor and business friendly.

2 Presently the telecommunication and financial institutions are flourishing, but according to economic experts, both these sectors are likely to face a bleak situation next year due to falling market shares. Food and consumers durables and textiles will lead the advertising revenue segments, with real estate dominating.

3 The electronic media, particularly TV, will continue to be the main advertising platform.

Atif Hameed

CEO, Power Ad

1 The recession will continue as per the prevailing economic indicators. The purchasing power of the common man has gone down and financial liquidity has never been so poor. Ad spend will continue to shrink during most of 2010. In FY 2007-08, the industry grew by only 10% in terms of revenue, which is significantly lower compared with the 62% and 32% growth of 2005-06 and 2006-07 respectively. 2008-09 will show negative growth. Under normal economic conditions, ad spend for 2009-10 should have grown by eight to 10% compared to 2008-09.

2 The telecom companies will continue to dominate. There are expectations that two mergers will take place in the near future, and this could change the whole scenario.

3 TV will remain first choice for advertisers for another five to seven years. Advertising on utility bills may begin to corner a reasonable share as an alternative medium; these are being used by many MNCs and local companies and in the last three years more than 120 million utility bills were sponsored. Online media has shown growth in the last two years with a 60% increase compared to 2006-07 and 2007-08. The ad spend in 2007-08 was four million dollars and in 2008-09 it was approximately five million dollars, which means a 25% growth even during a recession. The major telecom advertisers are using video ads on online media, which indicates that these will claim a major share in the near future. Over 50,000 broadband connections are added monthly in the major cities and this will change the pattern of ad spend. The internet audience in Pakistan stands at 18.5 million as per data given by Internet Usage World Statistics.

Ahmed Kapadia

Managing Director, Synergy Advertising

1 The economy is not showing signs of recovery. The real estate and automotive sectors are badly hit. This trend is expected to continue. Ad spend in FY 2009-10 will be close to last year’s numbers.

2 It looks like the status quo will be maintained, with the Government and the telecom companies continuing to be the largest spenders. Although there may be some cuts, ad spend among the telecoms will be substantial due to the size of the sector. There might be an increase in ad spend by the leading FMCG brands compared to last year.

3 TV is expected to be the largest medium. The growth of the internet, digital and radio advertising will continue at the expense of outdoor and print.

Gulzar Ali

CEO, Adarts

1 2008-09 witnessed a fall of nearly 20% in ad spend. I do not foresee much improvement in 2009-10 because of deteriorating industrial growth due to the energy crisis and other economic factors. Estimated ad spend for 2009-10 will remain at about 17 billion rupees.

2 Although there was a 25-30% decrease in the budgets of the telecom companies in 2008-09 compared to the previous year, this did not have much effect on the media due to the entry of another telecom. This sector will continue to dominate ad spend in 2009-10. Another significant advertiser, mainly in print, will be the Government of Pakistan.

3 TV will continue to be the main advertising platform. However, media planners will have to concentrate on result-oriented TV channels with high viewership. Budget allocations for FM radio are expected to increase.

Tanveer Ajmi

CEO, Bullseye 360

1 Although the indicators are projecting a five to eight percent decline, my prediction is that ad spend will continue to be more or less the same as it was in FY 2008-09.  

2 The major contribution will come from the telecom companies, although I see some positive growth coming from consumer banking.

3 TV will remain the main medium. However, there is a growing trend towards media activation and digital marketing.

Masood Hasan

CEO, Publicis Pakistan

1 2010 ‘may’ be the year of recovery for Pakistani advertising, but in a country where making such projections is a perilous task, industry opinion seems to suggest that the year will start on a slow note, although the situation may improve by July. Inflation at 12% and a power crisis that refuses to go away are going to be major factors. Small industries are badly hurt, although MNCs and established businesses have done reasonably well. Regarding ad spend, this is a bummer. The media quotes ad spend of 24 billion rupees, which is a little more than the 22.8 billion recorded the year before. However, the quoted 24 billion seen with the 50-60% drop that is often cited does not make it crystal clear what that figure is now. Evasive reporting by agencies does not help an already muddled numbers game. So my answer honestly is, I don’t know – but obviously much less than 24 billion.

2 If the Government invests in agriculture and basic infrastructure, things could improve. The sectors that will fuel growth are few and far between – certainly the Government, which is the largest advertiser in the business, is making noises after a period of silence and money is being squandered under various ‘schemes’ that are largely meant to reward loyalists. I would say the Government will be the largest spender (waster) followed by MNC/consumer goods, telecom (I think they have done all they wanted to; now it’s a price war and dwindling revenues), banks perhaps (if they survive with minimal injuries until mid-summer 2010) and that’s about it. There are many dead horses in the stream, so no use counting those.

3 Traditionally, TV has been the lead media. This year it has recorded approximately 12% growth over last year but lags behind the internet at 57%, radio at 19% and print at seven percent. Outdoor is down by 20% and in Punjab, the tough stance taken by the Punjab Government has seen over 400 billboards disappear. These figures are approximations. With load-shedding rampant, I often wonder how confident advertisers are about their message actually being transmitted, to say Lalamusa, when no one can predict whether there will be load-shedding at that particular time. No one can answer this, but the question is a nagging one.

Shoaib Qureshy

CEO, Bulls Eye Communications

1 2010 will not be the year of recovery for the industry. The worst is yet to come as the hit we received in 2008-09 was mostly due to home-grown issues (the tremors of the global recession did not reach here). With inflation at a record high, reducing disposable incomes, brands will be in trouble and marketing spends will be the first to face a cut. I will not quote absolute numbers as in our country there is no credible and standard industry data. But for perspective, I see the advertising spend being at least 10% down compared to last year.

2 The telecom companies will dominate, but their spend will be lower compared to last year; I see less telecom brands due to buyouts and failures. I also see the FMCG and food sector showing a strong trend together with the Government sector.

3 TV will be the main advertising medium, but BTL spending will rise astronomically, surprising industry forecasts, as many marketers will show greater interest in it.

Mansoor Karim

Managing Director, JWT Pakistan

1 2010 will be the year of recovery. According to Goldman Sachs, growth will come from the ‘Next 11’, and Pakistan is one of the 11 countries mentioned. Our total ad spend is approximately 18 billion rupees; I see a 10% growth in ad spend in 2010.

2 Property and banking will bounce back, but the telecoms will still be the leaders as their brands will fight to retain market share. The total market stand at 99.5 million subscribers and growth will be very difficult!

3 Although TV will still enjoy 70% share of the advertising budget, digital is catching up fast.

Javed Qadeer Khan

CEO, Marksman Advertising

1 Exports down, imports up and a trade deficit have always been the highlights of Pakistan’s economy. With the recent inclusion of the title of ‘Terrorist Nation’ to our economic portfolio, foreign investment is nowhere in sight. The positive word that we all are looking for is consistency. However, this word only gives meaning to our rising inflation rate. Consumers, advertisers and ad agencies will adapt to the current situation, and yes, we shall witness the recovery of the Pakistani ad industry. Assuming that consumer confidence will increase, it will be safe to estimate a 20 plus billion increase in ad spend in 2009-10.

2 The war for market share among the telecom giants will continue; baseless value addition ads will allow them to dominate as the leading ad spenders. The financial sector may also see growth depending on the State Bank of Pakistan’s lending policies. Some sort of recovery from the marketing budget slash of 2008 is definite.

3 TV will remain the main advertising platform. Trends will change with the internet becoming an emerging medium. Interactive advertising will take a sizeable chunk of the media budget.

Faraz Maqsood Hamidi

Chief Executive, The D’Hamidi Partnership

1 Although Pakistan took a (gloved) hit which led to a sharp decline in exports and, as a result, production and investment cuts by the private sector, 2010 seems poised for a slow but definite recovery. Keeping this in mind, an eight to 10% increase over last year’s ad spend is expected.

2 The telecom companies will not only remain market leaders, they are poised to become drivers of new markets. Therefore, it will not be unreasonable to consider an impending fusion of traditional categories with the telecom sector to harness its unprecedented breadth as well as depth.

3 Clients will continue to choose TV over other media.

S. Mansoor Zaidi

Chief Executive, S.V. Advertising

1 If the current situation continues and the power shortages remain as widespread as they are today, the industry will be even more hard hit, resulting in a slow recovery. As a result, ad spend will be less than it was this year.

2 The telecom companies will be the frontrunners, followed by the financial sector, due to the increase in interest rates.

3 TV will be the main gainer, although the power shortages do not provide the required coverage to advertisers. Advertisers should consider these blackouts as a hindrance to their reach, and focus on alternative media. 

M. Yahya Khan Sadozai

CEO, Enhancerz

1 2010 will bring positive changes to the industry, where only serious brains and professional heads will run the show. Estimated ad spend will be between 20 and 25 billion rupees.

2 The banking, energy and textile sectors. The telecom sector will still dominate in the coming year, with increased support from mobile manufacturing companies in particular.

3 TV is still the most effective medium to reach the public. The internet will be the main threat for the print media. Adopting a non-conventional approach is my tip for the print media.

Fauzia Shamshad

CEO, Starcom

1 2010 will be a year of consolidation. We do not foresee any major growth in ad spend. Spend for 2009-10 will hover around the 23-24 billion rupee mark (figures only for ATL, including TV, print, radio, OOH and online).

2 The telecom companies will continue to dominate ad spend but without any significant growth (i.e. single digit). The financial sector might make a comeback.

3 No significant changes will be seen in the choice of media in the short term. However, in the long term, print media advertising will continue to lose both share and circulation, giving way to an increasing share for online advertising and direct-to-consumer contact activities.

Rao Rashid-ul-Ahad Khan

CEO, Transworld Advertising

1 Recovery signs are sensed. Advertising, as the bloodline of overall economic prosperity, will enjoy a breeze of recovery in 2010.

2 The telecom companies account for a vital share in ad spend, both in the print and electronic media. Considering the present economic crisis, the telecom sector will continue to dominate spend but for a shorter span.

3 Media choice is based on preference rather than on media usage. According to research, 99% of the people watch their videos on TV, while one percent watch them on their computer. Plus in countries where the literacy rate is low, the prime choice will always be the sight, sound and movement media.

Pervez Iqbal

Managing Director, BBCL

1 The global advertising landscape is not recovering. Last year, the worth of the US ad industry declined by 16%, although there are expectations that it will stabilise in 2010. Ad spend in Pakistan has fallen drastically, although further reduction is not foreseen given that brands will have to fight for their market share. There may be a sudden surge in ad spend towards the end of 2010 if the political and the law and order situation improves. Anticipated ad spend is about 15 billion rupees.

2 The telecom companies will continue with their war of the services. Sectors that may improve when matters start to normalise are construction, education and services, with the financial sector last on the list.

3 TV will sustain its dominance due to flexible approaches adopted by the channels as well as ad spend effectiveness and exposure. TV is followed by brand activation, outdoor, radio and social media. Print media advertising will continue to suffer and will be used primarily by brands that can afford this luxury.

Aleem Durrani

Chief Executive, Media Pulse

1 We are in a phase of improvement. Advertising will make progress in 2010. Estimated ad spend will be approximately 24 billion rupees.

2 Although a correction in ad spend has already been witnessed in key sectors, the telecom companies will dominate. The growth is expected to come from FMCGs, new FMCG entrants, the financial and construction sector.

3 TV will continue to be the big brother with a more focused approach from planners. The share of FM radio will increase due to wider penetration. Digital and interactive media looks very promising and may emerge as a sustainable player in 2010.

Mahmood Hashmi

CEO, Orient Advertising

1 FY 2009-10 will be a year of correction. The market will be stable, but I do not see any major increase in marketing activities. I foresee an increase of about 15-20% in ad spend in FY 2009-10.

2 The telecom companies will continue dominating the market. There may be a boost in the real estate and banking sectors, and this might fuel new product launches, subject to changes in government policies and interest rates.

3 TV will continue to dominate. However, other electronic and digital media, such as radio and the internet will also chip in for their share of the pie.

Neil P. Christy

CEO, Headlion

1 Yes. Twenty four billion rupees as per the pundits. My estimate is approximately 18 billion rupees.

2 Banking will emerge. Real estate will bounce back. Telecom will remain consistently aggressive.

3 TV will continue to dominate but social networking sites will play a crucial role in the SEC A and B profiles. Sites like Facebook are the future. New and ambient media will also pick up. Another area to look out for is product placements and branded shows.

Jamal Mir

Managing Director, Prestige Communications

1 2010 will be better than 2009 as economic indicators are beginning to show positive signs. It will be a year of consolidation and readjustment. Different figures are being quoted, but in percentage terms there should be an increase of 15%.

2 FMCGs will make a comeback and the banking industry will also show positive growth. The telecom industry will remain static, but will continue to play a key role.

3 The Pakistani ad industry will always be dominated by TV due to the literacy rate. The competitive rates offered by TV channels will dent the revenues of the print media. However, other media, like BTL, OOH and in-store display will continue to evolve. The economy and political stability will dictate the state of the market and the media mix used by clients.

Mohammad Ibrahim Fahmi

Managing Director, Medialine Advertising

1 It is unlikely that the ensuing year will spell a recovery for the industry, especially given the forecasts of growing American presence and widespread dissatisfaction among the public. My gut feeling is that next year will either be like this one or even a little worse.

2 Although the telecom sector has stopped growing (it has almost reached a peak in terms of ad spend) it will continue to dominate. New investors are very cautious and playing it safe, so any expectation of drastic change in the current scenario is far fetched.

3 There is a growing trend among advertisers to try newer and cheaper means of promotion. There is revived interest in BTL and new media. However, it will be years before TV, as the medium of choice, will be relegated to a lesser position.

Mehnaz Ahmed

Country Head, Initiative Media

1 There will be steady growth in the next financial year. Advertiser confidence in the economy has started showing positive signs, with increasing budget allocations in the last six months. This trend will carry forward in the next fiscal year. Ad spend levels are expected to improve by 10-12%.

2 The telecom companies will continue to dominate but to a lesser extent, as most of them will consolidate their service offerings and penetrate the rural markets. Food will be an emerging category, along with other FMCG companies.

3 TV will continue to be the main advertising platform. There will be a more creative exploitation of other media, such as online and digital, although it will take time for this trend to be reflected in the total share of spend.

Seema Jaffer

CEO, Bond Advertising

1 I am optimistic about 2010. I see new market entrants in personal care, biscuits and confectionery; in financial products and energy. I see increased competition in the telecom sector. I foresee a larger role played by local clients. Ad spend will be between 28 and 30 billion rupees.

2 The telecom companies will be the largest spenders. Mobile companies and banks are looking at mobile commerce as the next big thing, so that will spin off another category in telecom services. The financial sector will boost its ad spend; also coming up will be the personal products category and edibles.

3 TV will dominate. Other contenders will witness growth but TV will reign supreme. It’s inevitable in our economy.

Mukhtar Ahmad Azmi

Chief Executive, M.A.Z. Advertising

1 The macro-economic situation is far from satisfactory. The global economic recovery has yet to mature and improving market conditions have yet to provide the impetus needed to lift the economy. According to the Planning Commission of Pakistan, the growth of the services sector for 2009-10 is projected at 3.9%. Total ad spend has increased by 10% in FY 2007-08 (from 22.76 billion to 25.05 billion rupees). This is significantly lower compared to the 62% increase in 2005-06 and 32% increase in 2006-07. This declining trend will continue.

2 The telecom companies will remain the number one category on TV, followed by mobile handsets, fuelling growth and dominating spend. According to data released by the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority, teledensity reached 62.3% in July this year, which was almost 100 bps higher than the preceding month. The cellular segment witnessed a decent trend with a penetration level of 58.5% and in July 2009, mobile subscribers rose to a total of 95.55 million.

3 TV will continue to be the main advertising platform.

Shahnoor Ahmed

CEO, Spectrum Y&R

1 2010 will be a good year for advertising; we can all see the signs of recovery. Towards the end of 2008 when the economic tsunami hit the world, Pakistani businesses and consumers went into a ‘conserve mode’ and we saw empty front pages in newspapers, lower rates and more FOC spots in the electronic media, while some categories of advertisers (such as banks) almost came to a halt in terms of media presence. It is not business as usual at the levels it used to be, but we are getting there in some cases. The estimated ad spend in 2009-10 will be anybody’s guess.

2 The telecom companies will continue to grow, although they may not prove as profitable for the agencies due to lower margins. New FMCGs will be the catalyst that will push spending up in categories such as detergents, milk, biscuits, ice cream, etc. NGOs in the health and education development sector (through which the bulk of the 1.5 billion dollar US aid funding will be funnelled) will contribute a lot to the growth of the adverting industry.

3 Wherever literacy is an issue, the audio-visual medium will thrive. However, with 80 plus channels to choose from, TV has lost the bite it had in yesteryears.

Sohail Kisat

CEO, M Communications

1 Partially yes, 2010 will be a year of recovery. There will be a heavy investment influx in the public and development sector. The consequent economic multiplier will restore confidence and encourage commercial sector spend. Ad spend for FY 2009-10 is anticipated to be 18-22 billion rupees.

2 Social safety, community development and capacity building programmes; key utility and FMCG companies and the energy sectors will fuel growth. Telecom penetration is on the verge of saturation. The price war will intensify. Desperate ‘number plays’ for market share and a reduction in profit margins is sustaining speculation that there will be at least one merger/acquisition. Decline in telecom ad spend is expected, although it will remain the leader.

3 TV will continue to be the main platform.

Web, digital, IPC and brand activation tools will make inroads through value innovation.

Fouad Husain

MD, Mindshare Pakistan

1 Despite challenges in the economic environment, advertising and media agencies have been showing a growth trend, with growing adex numbers from 2008 to 2009. However, this growth has been led by the telecom sector which is moving towards a more structured environment. Spend will increase by 10% in FY 2009-10 as other sectors emerge, namely the FMCG companies that are faced with the challenge of fighting for volume growth.

2 The present economic situation has opened the doors to a more value driven situation for most sectors. The telecom sector, which had been following a buying strategy, will switch to a more planning based strategy. Industries, especially consumer driven ones, will emerge as the new leaders introducing new avenues of communication, including digital.

3 TV will continue to be the main medium.

Oswald Lucas

Chief Creative Officer, Adétude

1 It better be, or we all might have to close shop and that includes Aurora and Adétude! This year has witnessed the lowest GDP figures in the history of Pakistan with an all time low of two percent. This in itself is a strong indicator of the economic crisis we are in. Numerous research studies have proved that recessions are the best time for a product to be advertised. Thank God, some smart clients (like ours) realise this. 2010 will surely be a year of revival for Pakistani advertising. Estimated ad spend in FY 2009-10 will be 20-22 billion rupees not lower… I hope not :)

2 I do not see any other industry on a growth pattern that could take over from the telecom sector. Yes, the financial sector is re-emerging after a hiatus of a year or so, but it will still be the telecom companies that will continue to dominate ad spend in 2010.

3 TV will remain the leading medium of choice in 2010.