The moment it was launched in August 2012 Windows 8 received mixed reviews, although Microsoft did hope it would ride out that storm and the market would eventually buy into the company’s vision of a confluent Operating System (OS) that would become the only ecosystem for the smartphones, tablets and desktops of the world. As one Microsoft professional put it to me at the time, “we get this right and we wipe everyone out”. When asked “what if you get it wrong?”, “we get wiped out” he replied with a grin.

It seems that this nightmare scenario did come to pass. Microsoft did not get it right, however, thanks to its deep pockets and the piles of cash that the other businesses were churning out, no one is wiping out Microsoft anytime soon.

However, look at the numbers and you see just how catastrophic the failure of Windows 8 really was. Riding on the back of the highly acclaimed Windows 7 (which in itself was a rescue mission to save the company from the much derided Windows Vista), it seemed that Microsoft could only go up and that this confluent multiplatform OS would become a game changer for the industry.

Yet, four years on the numbers reveal the scale of the disaster that Windows 8 (and its cousins 8.1 and RT) turned out to be – even when compared to Windows Vista. Consider this, after the Windows 8, 8.1 and RT rollouts, Windows Vista had a 4.52% market share compared to the 2.67% Windows 8 attracted. A similar analysis for Windows 7 cuts an even sorrier picture. In November 2013, Windows 7 had a 20% global desktop market share compared to 9.3% for Windows 8 – and today even the most optimistic appraisals give it a 13% market share). From a marketing perspective most experts agree that the following reasons account for this massive failure.

1) Messing with creatures of habit
Ever since Windows 95 came on the market, PC users have become used to the desktop/mouse combination and the introduction of a new touch-screen optimised Metro interface turned out to be too much too soon; abandoning Windows 7’s classic Aero interface was a huge mistake as the dual desktop interface brought nothing to the User Experience (UX) and most customers simply refused to upgrade.

2) Trying to be everything to everyone
Although Windows 8 was specifically developed in order to provide confluence across platforms, the fact that Microsoft was so unrelenting in keeping the same experience for all Windows 8 users ended up making the experience less than optimal on any platform.

3) Developers’ nightmare
The fact that Windows 8 required developers to abandon their painstakingly developed .Net expertise and work natively on Windows 8, proved to be catastrophic, and many companies (such as the gaming giant Steam) moved their platforms from Windows to Linux.

4) Out of touch with consumer sentiment
Microsoft did little or nothing to mitigate the negative customer fallout, and the increased competition from Google and Apple meant that the company lost market share, particularly in the tablet/phone landscape, which is now essentially a two-horse race.

That was then. Moving forwards, in September 2014 Microsoft announced that it had finally heard its core audience and would replace Windows 8 with Windows 10. The new OS, while remaining true to the vision of a confluent OS across platforms, would play on the strengths of legacy OSs (including Windows 8) and build on the customer experience. Furthermore, to make amends for the sins of Windows 8, the new system would come as a free upgrade for all Windows 7, 8 and 8.1 users.

Beta testing on the OS started in October 2014 and the system was officially launched in July 2015, and going by the initial reviews, it seems as if this time Microsoft has got it right. Most people are bullish about the new system going as far as to say that it incorporates the best parts of Windows 7 and 8 and a dash of compelling new features.

The launch was heralded as not just a new Windows, but as a new way of doing things that would ‘Upgrade Your World’. Microsoft’s vision is to integrate Windows 10 not only on people’s PCs and mobile devices but in their whole life. New features such as the Cortana digital assistant (Microsoft’s answer to Siri), a biometric authentication programme called Windows Hello, a new web-browser called Edge and DirectX 12 with revolutionary graphics are some of the augmentations that have been universally praised. Added to this, Microsoft has brought to Windows 10 all the best features from its legacy OSs. The start button is back, so that people are not forced to use the touchscreen as is the option to retain the classic desktop view and have Windows 8 live tiles as a menu option in order to revert to programmes that lend itself to the platform.

The new system, however, does has its quirks. There is a stream of constant updates to the OS and the level of personal information the Cortana and Windows Hello demand in order for users to have a truly integrated experience makes some people worried that they will have to start wearing tin-foil beanies. However, users who are uncomfortable with the pace of the upgrades on the software cadence may if they so wish slowdown the pace by either paying a fee, or and in some cases, upgrade to a costlier Windows Enterprise License. Nevertheless, observers seem convinced (for now) that Windows 10 is a big step in the evolution of the Windows OS line. Windows 10 was made available to 14 million PCs on its launch day and the momentum since then has been steady. Further iterations in the mobile and tablet space have been promised with the launch of Windows 10 Mobile, although the official launch date for this has not been announced.

The question is how will Microsoft afford to offer this mainstay product free of cost? On closer analysis this business case seems to have loads of potential.

Firstly, let’s look at the competitive landscape. With companies like Google giving away first class software like Android OS and Chrome, many analysts are wondering how Microsoft can afford NOT to give away its OS for free. Secondly, Microsoft has a long term strategy which (ironically) proved effective with Windows 8. The idea is to give away the OS for free in order to hit a critical mass of loyal customers and build sizeable market share. Once this is done, Microsoft will charge a fee from additional services and software packaging.

In December, Microsoft’s COO said that the company may move from a one-time licensing fee to an annuity conversion, particularly for corporate customers. Also, users can opt to slow Windows 10’s regular updates cadence by subscribing to an annuity conversion and pace upgrades according to their liking. Thirdly, with a large market share Microsoft will attract interest from app developers and programmers developing software for the OS, and sales on that front will be a big revenue driver. As with Windows 8, Microsoft may offer cheaper licenses to companies and developers after the free uptick expires if they agree to tie in their OS exclusively to Microsoft’s Bing search engine. This will also attract SEM and other search revenues.

Although experts agree that such tactics may in the short term lower direct software revenue, they also believe they will increase revenue in areas such as game development, app sales and Bing. All this may put Microsoft ahead in the game even with the free upgrade to Windows 10 running right now.

In conclusion, while it is too soon to tell whether Windows 10 will be the panacea to Microsoft’s problems particularly in the mobile/tablet space, it is a good example of the lengths a resourceful industry leader can go to win back market share. As most observers continue to praise the OS and customers rush to get their hands on a free copy, the only lingering question out there seems to be “whatever happened to Windows 9”?

Tariq Ziad Khan is a US-based marketer. tzk999@yahoo.com